Norris 408 — Verstappen 396 — Piastri 392. The 2025 season is heading for a finale that will go down in the history books.

Qatar was a race we would file under strategy roulette rather than pure speed. An early crash by Nico Hülkenberg brought out the Safety Car, suddenly making the mandatory tyre-stint limit (a maximum of 25 laps per set in a 57-lap race) the main storyline.

And Max Verstappen? He smelled blood.

Championship standings after Qatar

1. Lando Norris — 408 pts

2. Max Verstappen — 396 pts

3. Oscar Piastri — 392 pts

Three men. One race. One world title. Abu Dhabi will not be a season finale. It will be war. Who becomes world champion? Here are all the mathematically correct scenarios based on the corrected 392 points for Piastri and the new final standings.

How does Lando Norris become world champion? (408 pts)

Norris has a 12-point lead over Verstappen, and 16 over Piastri.

He becomes champion if he:

Norris is always champion with:

• P1

• P2

Norris is also champion with:

• P3, unless Verstappen wins and takes the fastest lap (tie → Max wins on number of victories)

Norris loses the title if:

• Verstappen wins and Norris finishes P4 or worse

• Verstappen wins + FL and Norris finishes P3 or worse

Concretely: Norris needs to finish in the top 4 to control it himself. Outside that, he depends on chaos behind him.

How does Max Verstappen become world champion? (396 pts)

Verstappen is 12 points behind Norris, and 4 ahead of Piastri.

He becomes champion with:

Verstappen wins → champion if:

• Norris P4 or worse

• Norris P3 or worse (if Max also takes FL)

Verstappen P2 → champion if:

• Norris P7 or worse

• (with fastest lap: Norris P8 or worse)

Anything below P2 → Max is eliminated

Max needs to secure P1 or P2, otherwise the title is simply out of reach for him.

How does Oscar Piastri become world champion? (392 pts)

The trickiest puzzle of the three.

He needs to finish P1 or P2. Any other position → eliminated immediately.

Piastri wins with fastest lap (418 pts)

• Norris P6 or worse

• Verstappen P3 or worse

Piastri wins without fastest lap (417 pts)

• Norris P7 or worse

• Verstappen P3 or worse

Piastri finishes P2 + fastest lap (411 pts)

• Norris P10 or worse

• Verstappen P5 or worse

P2 without FL (410 pts)

• Norris P11 or worse

• Verstappen P6 or worse

Piastri needs a miracle scenario, but mathematically he's still in the race.

The 2025 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix will be legendary

Three drivers within 16 points.

• Norris needs to finish in the top 4.

• Verstappen needs to win or finish P2.

• Piastri needs to finish in the top 2 and hope the world ends behind him.

And the best part? They will likely start with similar race pace, without the tyre-limit chaos we saw in Qatar. On Sunday, literally anything can happen.